The Real Reason Why Julani Wants a Deal with Israel: A Comprehensive Analysis

In a recent tweet by Kevork Almassian, the geopolitical landscape of Syria has once again come under scrutiny, particularly concerning Julani’s intentions to forge a deal with Israel. This tweet suggests that the situation in Syria has reached a critical point, with the phrase "Syria is cooked" indicating a dire state of affairs. In this summary, we will delve into the context surrounding Julani’s motivations, the implications of a potential deal with Israel, and the broader geopolitical ramifications of the ongoing conflicts in the region.

Understanding Julani’s Position

Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group that emerged from the remnants of al-Qaeda in Syria, has been a controversial figure in the Syrian conflict. His group has been involved in numerous battles against both the Syrian government and rival factions. However, with the dynamics of the conflict evolving, Julani’s strategies appear to be shifting.

As the Syrian Civil war enters its second decade, the power dynamics in the region have changed significantly. The Assad regime, supported by Russia and Iran, has regained control of much of the territory it lost earlier in the conflict. Meanwhile, other factions, including Kurdish forces and various rebel groups, have been weakened or fragmented. In this context, Julani’s desire for a deal with Israel may stem from a pragmatic assessment of the current geopolitical realities.

The Implications of a Deal with Israel

A potential deal between Julani and Israel would represent a significant shift in the typically adversarial relationship between Syrian factions and the Israeli state. Historically, Israel has been wary of groups like HTS, which espouse extremist ideologies and have been involved in anti-Israel rhetoric and actions. However, the changing landscape of the Syrian conflict could lead to unexpected alliances.

1. Strategic Interests: For Julani, aligning with Israel could provide a strategic advantage. Given the Assad regime’s precarious situation, a partnership with a powerful neighbor could offer military support and resources that HTS desperately needs. This could enhance Julani’s standing among his followers and solidify his control over the territory he governs.
2. Regional Stability: On the flip side, Israel’s interest in a deal with HTS could be driven by a desire for stability along its northern border. The Israeli government has long been concerned about the presence of Iranian forces and their proxies in Syria. By negotiating with Julani, Israel might seek to mitigate the influence of these forces, ensuring that HTS remains a bulwark against Iranian expansionism.
3. International Perception: A deal could also alter the international perception of HTS. If Julani is seen as a pragmatic leader willing to engage with Israel, it might soften his group’s image, potentially opening doors for diplomatic recognition or support from Western nations. This could shift the balance of power in the region and impact the dynamics of international aid and intervention.
   

   The Broader Geopolitical Ramifications
   

   The implications of a potential Julani-Israel deal extend beyond the immediate conflict in Syria:

4. Impact on Syrian Sovereignty: Such a deal could undermine the Syrian government’s authority, further destabilizing the already fragile state. The Assad regime has portrayed any collaboration with Israel as treasonous, and this could incite backlash from the government and its supporters.
5. Increased Tensions with Iran: Should Julani align with Israel, Iran’s influence in Syria could be further challenged. This would heighten tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially leading to increased military confrontations in the region. Iran has invested heavily in supporting the Assad regime and its proxies, and any threat to that influence could provoke a robust response.
6. Changing Alliances: The potential for a deal between Julani and Israel might also prompt other factions within Syria to reassess their alliances. Groups that have historically opposed Israel could find themselves in a position where they must reconsider their strategies in light of shifting power dynamics.
7. Humanitarian Concerns: The ongoing conflict in Syria has resulted in a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale. Any shift in alliances could impact the flow of aid and assistance to civilians caught in the crossfire. A deal between Julani and Israel might complicate humanitarian efforts, especially if it leads to increased military actions or territorial disputes.
   

   Conclusion
   

   The possibility of Julani pursuing a deal with Israel is a reflection of the complex and evolving nature of the Syrian conflict. As geopolitical realities shift, leaders like Julani are compelled to adapt their strategies to survive and maintain power. The implications of such a deal are far-reaching, affecting not only the immediate players involved but also the broader regional and international landscape.

   As this situation unfolds, it will be crucial for observers to monitor the developments closely. The stakes are high, and the outcomes of these negotiations could reshape the future of Syria and its relations with neighboring countries, particularly Israel. The phrase "Syria is cooked" encapsulates the urgency and gravity of the current situation, highlighting the need for thoughtful engagement and strategic diplomacy in a region fraught with tension and conflict.

The Real Reason Why Julani Wants a Deal with Israel. Spoiler Alert: Syria is cooked. pic.twitter.com/1B9Oh6q794

— Kevork Almassian (@KevorkAlmassian) July 1, 2025

The Real Reason Why Julani Wants a Deal with Israel. Spoiler Alert: Syria is cooked.

Recent headlines have been buzzing with the statement, “The Real Reason Why Julani Wants a Deal with Israel. Spoiler Alert: Syria is cooked.” This intriguing assertion has sparked discussions about the complexities of the Syrian conflict and the motivations behind various players involved. With the ongoing turmoil in Syria, the need for stability and strategic partnerships has become increasingly apparent. So, what’s behind Julani’s desire for a deal with Israel? Let’s break it down.

Understanding Julani’s Position

Julani, a prominent figure in the Syrian conflict, has been a key player in the ongoing struggle for power in the region. His group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has emerged from the chaos in Syria, aiming to establish control and influence amidst the fragmented landscape. But why, after years of conflict, is he looking to negotiate with Israel?

One of the primary motivations is the precarious situation in Syria. With the Assad regime struggling to maintain control and various factions vying for power, Julani recognizes that aligning with Israel could provide a strategic advantage. A deal with Israel might offer him the legitimacy and resources needed to solidify his position in a rapidly changing environment.

Syria’s Current State: A Recipe for Change

When we say, “Syria is cooked,” we’re highlighting a critical reality. The Syrian conflict has devastated the nation, leading to a humanitarian crisis and widespread destruction. The government, despite its attempts to regain control, faces significant challenges from both rebel groups and ISIS remnants. This chaotic environment leaves room for new alliances and strategic partnerships.

As various factions are weakened, Julani’s HTS aims to fill the power vacuum. By negotiating with Israel, he could gain a powerful ally that not only helps him gain ground but could also provide military assistance or intelligence. In a region where power dynamics shift swiftly, this partnership could be a game-changer.

The Geopolitical Landscape

To fully grasp why Julani would seek a deal with Israel, we must consider the broader geopolitical landscape. The Middle East is characterized by complex relationships, and alliances often shift based on mutual interests. Israel itself has shown a willingness to engage with certain Syrian factions, particularly those that align with its security concerns.

Israel’s primary interest in Syria revolves around security threats posed by Iran and its proxies. By supporting groups like HTS, Israel might see a reduction in Iranian influence in the region. For Julani, aligning with Israel could provide him with the necessary backing to counteract adversaries, both local and foreign.

Strategic Benefits for Julani

So, what exactly does Julani stand to gain from a deal with Israel? Firstly, there’s the issue of security. In a conflict-ridden landscape, having a powerful ally can mean the difference between survival and annihilation. A partnership with Israel could offer military support, intelligence-sharing, and even financial aid, which are crucial for consolidating power.

Moreover, a deal could enhance Julani’s legitimacy. In the eyes of his supporters, aligning with a state like Israel could be framed as a pragmatic move for the sake of stability and strength. It’s a delicate balance that he must navigate to maintain his influence while appeasing various factions within Syria.

The Risks Involved

While the potential benefits are significant, aligning with Israel also comes with substantial risks. The historical animosity between Israel and various groups in the region cannot be overlooked. Julani must tread carefully, as many of his supporters might view any deal with Israel as a betrayal of their cause.

Additionally, the internal dynamics within Syria are complex. Other factions, including those loyal to Assad, could see this alignment as a direct threat and respond aggressively. Julani would need to manage these relationships carefully to avoid escalating tensions further.

Public Perception and Propaganda

Another crucial aspect to consider is the role of public perception. In a region where narratives shape reality, how Julani frames his negotiations with Israel will be pivotal. He’ll need to communicate the potential benefits to his supporters while downplaying the risks involved. This is where propaganda comes into play.

Crafting a narrative that positions the deal as a strategic necessity for the greater good of Syria could help him gain public support. If he successfully portrays this partnership as a means to achieve peace and stability, he may find that many of his supporters come around.

Regional Reactions

The potential deal between Julani and Israel is likely to provoke reactions from various regional players. Iran, for instance, would view such an alliance with alarm. As a staunch supporter of the Assad regime and a major player in the Syrian conflict, Iran has a vested interest in maintaining its influence in Syria. An alliance between Julani and Israel could be perceived as a direct threat to its agenda.

Furthermore, other rebel factions in Syria might react defensively. Julani’s move could instigate a power struggle, leading to further fragmentation within the opposition. The risk of infighting could destabilize any progress made towards a unified front against the Assad regime.

The Future of Syrian Politics

As we consider the implications of Julani wanting a deal with Israel, it’s essential to reflect on the future of Syrian politics. The Syrian conflict has already altered the political landscape irreversibly, and any new alliances will shape the trajectory of the country moving forward.

Should Julani succeed in forging a partnership with Israel, it could signal a shift in how various factions approach negotiations and alliances in the future. We might see more players in the region willing to engage with Israel, recognizing the potential benefits of such a relationship.

Conclusion: A Complex Path Ahead

The real reason why Julani wants a deal with Israel is deeply rooted in the ongoing turmoil in Syria. With the stakes higher than ever, the motivations behind his actions reflect a broader struggle for power, legitimacy, and survival in a conflict-ridden landscape. As the situation evolves, it will be fascinating to watch how these dynamics play out, and whether Julani can navigate the challenges ahead to secure a deal that could reshape the future of Syria.

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This article is structured with HTML headings and contains a conversational tone, focusing on the complex motivations and implications surrounding Julani’s potential deal with Israel amidst the chaotic backdrop of the Syrian conflict. Each section is designed to engage the reader while providing comprehensive information on the topic.