Understanding the Future of Autonomous Vehicles: Insights from Jo Bhakdi

In a recent tweet, tech entrepreneur Jo Bhakdi provided a compelling perspective on the evolving landscape of autonomous vehicles, particularly focusing on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and the implications of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). His insights have the potential to reshape our understanding of the automotive industry and the future of transportation.

The Current state of Automakers and FSD Technology

Bhakdi begins by asserting that no other automaker currently stands a chance of developing advanced FSD capabilities comparable to that of Tesla. This statement underscores Tesla’s unique position in the market, as the company has dedicated substantial resources and expertise toward developing its FSD technology. Tesla’s aggressive approach and continuous software updates have set it apart from traditional automakers, which may not yet have the infrastructure or technological prowess to compete effectively.

In this context, it’s essential to recognize the competitive landscape of the automotive industry. While many companies are investing in autonomous vehicle technology, the complexity and challenges of achieving true autonomy mean that only a few players may emerge as leaders. Tesla’s head start, combined with its innovative culture, positions it well to maintain its dominance in this rapidly evolving field.

The Challenges Facing Waymo

Bhakdi’s second point addresses Waymo, the self-driving technology company spun off from Google’s parent company, Alphabet. He claims that Waymo is "dead in the water," a bold assertion that reflects the challenges the company has faced in deploying its technology at scale. Despite being a pioneer in the field, Waymo has struggled with regulatory hurdles, public perception, and the complexities of real-world driving scenarios.

This sentiment resonates with many industry analysts who have observed that while Waymo has made significant strides in developing autonomous technology, it has yet to achieve the level of widespread adoption that many had anticipated. The road to fully autonomous vehicles is fraught with obstacles, and Waymo’s journey illustrates the unpredictable nature of technological advancement in this sector.

Commoditization of FSD Technology

One of Bhakdi’s most intriguing predictions is that FSD capabilities will eventually become commoditized, potentially as a side effect of advancements in AGI and ASI. This prediction raises important questions about the future of FSD technology and its implications for the automotive industry.

Commoditization refers to the process by which a product becomes widely available and interchangeable with others, often leading to reduced prices and increased accessibility. In the context of FSD, Bhakdi suggests that as AGI and ASI evolve, the underlying technology that powers autonomous vehicles could become standardized and accessible to a broader range of manufacturers. This could lead to a significant shift in the market, where advanced driving capabilities are no longer exclusive to a select few companies but rather available to all.

Such a scenario could democratize access to autonomous driving technology, enabling more automakers to incorporate FSD features into their vehicles. This shift could have profound implications for consumers, as it may lead to increased competition, lower prices, and more choices in the marketplace.

The Intersection of FSD, AGI, and ASI

Bhakdi’s assertion that FSD capabilities may be commoditized due to advancements in AGI and ASI invites further exploration of how these technologies intersect. AGI refers to a type of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks, much like a human. ASI, on the other hand, represents a level of intelligence that surpasses human capabilities.

The development of AGI and ASI could accelerate the progress of autonomous vehicle technology in several ways. For instance, AGI could enhance the decision-making processes of self-driving systems, allowing them to navigate complex environments more effectively. Similarly, ASI could lead to breakthroughs in machine learning, enabling autonomous vehicles to learn from vast amounts of data and improve their performance over time.

As these technologies advance, the potential for FSD capabilities to become more robust, reliable, and widely adopted becomes increasingly feasible. This interplay between autonomous vehicles and AI technologies underscores the importance of continued investment and research in these areas.

Conclusion: The Future of Autonomous Driving

Jo Bhakdi’s insights into the future of autonomous vehicles paint a thought-provoking picture of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. While Tesla currently maintains a competitive edge in FSD technology, the landscape is continually evolving, and the emergence of AGI and ASI could reshape the industry in unexpected ways.

As we move forward, it will be crucial for automakers, tech companies, and policymakers to navigate the complexities of autonomous driving technology with a focus on safety, regulation, and innovation. The ultimate goal should be to harness the potential of FSD technology to create a safer, more efficient transportation system for everyone.

In summary, Bhakdi’s predictions highlight the dynamic nature of the automotive industry and the importance of staying informed about technological advancements. As we continue to explore the intersection of autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence, the insights shared by thought leaders like Jo Bhakdi will play a vital role in shaping the future of transportation.

Oh Gary.

1. There is no other automaker that has any chance of developing this anytime soon.

2. Waymo is dead in the water, as explained before.

3. My prediction is that FSD capability gets commoditized out of left field in lieu of AGI / ASI as a side effect of it.

That means… https://t.co/IgjcOWmHrU

— Jo Bhakdi (@JOBhakdi) June 22, 2025

Oh Gary

In the ever-evolving landscape of automotive technology, the rise of autonomous vehicles has sparked a fascinating discourse. It all started with a tweet from Jo Bhakdi that caught the attention of many enthusiasts and experts alike. In this tweet, Bhakdi makes some bold claims about the future of Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and the competitive landscape among automakers.

So, what does this tweet really mean for the future? Let’s dive into the implications of Bhakdi’s predictions, particularly focusing on the assertion that no other automaker has a chance of developing advanced FSD technology anytime soon.

1. There is no other automaker that has any chance of developing this anytime soon

When it comes to self-driving cars, Tesla has been a frontrunner in the race for FSD capabilities. The company’s relentless innovation and commitment to integrating advanced AI into vehicles set it apart from traditional automakers. But what exactly does Bhakdi mean when he states that no other automaker can catch up?

Firstly, Tesla’s approach combines vast amounts of data collection with machine learning algorithms that improve over time. Unlike many established car manufacturers that focus primarily on hardware, Tesla’s strength lies in its software. The company has amassed an unprecedented amount of driving data from its fleet, allowing it to refine its algorithms more effectively than any competitor.

Moreover, the rapid pace at which Tesla rolls out updates ensures that its vehicles are continuously learning and improving. This agile development process contrasts sharply with traditional automakers, which often operate on longer cycles and are bogged down by regulatory hurdles and legacy systems. So, in essence, Bhakdi’s assertion reflects the unique position Tesla occupies in the market, making it challenging for others to compete.

2. Waymo is dead in the water, as explained before

Ah, Waymo—a name that once dominated discussions around self-driving technology. However, Jo Bhakdi’s claim about Waymo being “dead in the water” resonates with a growing sentiment among industry watchers. But what led to this dramatic assessment?

Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet (Google’s parent company), initially seemed poised to lead the charge in autonomous driving. However, the reality has been far from smooth sailing. Despite significant investment and resources, Waymo has faced various challenges, including regulatory hurdles, public skepticism, and technical limitations.

Unlike Tesla, which employs a more flexible and iterative approach, Waymo’s strategy has been more conservative, focusing on developing a fully autonomous vehicle before widespread deployment. This cautious stance has resulted in delays and a lack of market presence, leading many to question whether Waymo can reclaim its positioning in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Bhakdi’s comments suggest that the gap between Tesla and Waymo may be widening, further diminishing the latter’s prospects in the autonomous vehicle race.

3. My prediction is that FSD capability gets commoditized out of left field in lieu of AGI / ASI as a side effect of it

Now, let’s unpack Bhakdi’s prediction that FSD capabilities may get commoditized due to advancements in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). This is where the conversation takes an intriguing turn.

The notion of commoditization implies that as technology matures, it may become widely available and standard across the industry. If AGI or ASI were to emerge, it’s conceivable that the underlying technology for FSD could be developed and adopted at an unprecedented speed.

Imagine a scenario where breakthroughs in AI lead to a sudden leap in self-driving capabilities, enabling not just Tesla but also other automakers to deliver competitive FSD solutions. This could democratize access to autonomous technology, bringing it to a broader audience.

However, this prediction is not without its complexities. The timeline for achieving AGI or ASI is still uncertain, and the implications of such advancements in society and technology are vast. Nevertheless, Bhakdi’s insights highlight the dynamic nature of the automotive and tech industries, suggesting that the future could hold unexpected surprises.

The Bigger Picture

As we explore the landscape of autonomous vehicles, it’s essential to consider the broader implications of these developments. The race for FSD capabilities is not just about technological superiority; it’s also about regulatory frameworks, public acceptance, and ethical considerations.

Tesla’s advancements have certainly sparked interest and excitement, but they have also raised important questions about safety, liability, and the future of work in the transportation sector. As we inch closer to a future dominated by autonomous vehicles, discussions surrounding these issues will become increasingly vital.

The potential commoditization of FSD technology could also lead to significant shifts in the automotive industry. Established players may find themselves competing not just with each other but also with tech companies entering the space. This could revolutionize the way we think about transportation, mobility, and even urban planning.

In summary, Jo Bhakdi’s tweet encapsulates some of the most pressing conversations in the automotive sector today. The assertions regarding Tesla’s unmatched position, the challenges faced by Waymo, and the potential commoditization of FSD capabilities reflect the complexities and uncertainties of a rapidly evolving industry.

Whether you agree or disagree with Bhakdi’s claims, one thing is clear: the future of self-driving technology is anything but predictable. As we continue to witness advancements and innovations, it will be fascinating to see how these dynamics play out in the coming years.