1. Young people leaning conservative
2. Youth shifting away from liberalism.
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Recent data indicates that President Joe Biden is facing a decline in support among young voters. While he secured 60% of the votes from individuals aged 18-29 in the 2020 election, a recent poll from the New York Times/Siena shows that his support has dropped to 43% among this demographic, with 46% leaning towards Trump and 11% considering third-party candidates. This shift in support could have significant implications for the upcoming election, which is expected to be closely contested.
Concerns Over Biden’s Appeal to Young Voters
Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster, has analyzed recent polls and found that Biden’s lead over Trump has decreased significantly compared to the 2020 election results. With the margin of victory expected to be slim, any decrease in support among young voters could impact Biden’s chances of reelection. This trend is particularly concerning as young voters played a crucial role in securing Biden’s victory in key swing states in 2020.
Media Framing of Biden’s Challenges
Despite the growing concerns over Biden’s appeal to young voters, media coverage often portrays the situation as a result of a left-wing revolt against the President. Articles from outlets like The New York Times and CNBC have suggested that Biden’s handling of issues like the economy and the Israel-Hamas conflict has contributed to his waning support among young voters.
Insights from Blueprint Survey
To gain a deeper understanding of young voters’ perspectives, Blueprint conducted a national survey of 943 individuals aged 18-30. The survey aimed to identify the issues that matter most to young people and explore how Biden can regain their support. Additionally, interviews with young men revealed a diversity of views and concerns, highlighting the complexity of the young voter demographic.
Young Voters’ Ideological Diversity
The survey results indicated that young voters do not fit a monolithic liberal profile, with a significant portion identifying as moderate or conservative. This ideological diversity challenges the notion that all young voters hold progressive views, highlighting the need for a nuanced understanding of this demographic.
Top Concerns Among Young Voters
Issues such as inflation, healthcare, jobs, and government spending were identified as top priorities for young voters, reflecting their focus on economic stability and social welfare. While some young voters expressed concerns over Biden’s age and policy decisions, others highlighted the need for leadership that prioritizes the well-being of all Americans.
Perceptions of Trump vs. Biden
Young voters view Trump as more aligned with their economic concerns, particularly in terms of lowering prices and creating job opportunities. This perception has led to a higher level of trust in Trump’s ability to address economic issues, highlighting a potential challenge for Biden in winning back support from this demographic.
Media Misconceptions About Young Voters
My Ranger friend texted me that what worries him most about a potential second Biden term was “his overall lack of competence/cognitive ability that leads to poor decision making.”
It’s important to note the distinction between issues where young people have different views than older voters and issues that are salient for young people.
It is true that polling shows that young people are generally less pro-Israel and more pro-Palestine than older generations. But that doesn’t mean that Israel-Palestine is determinative of their vote choices, at least not for the large majority of us.
Luca Girodon, one of my classmates at Yale, is a rising junior studying Global Affairs. He’s French-American (born in Paris), the son of two war reporters, and says that “great power competition with China, the war in Ukraine, human rights, and the situation in Gaza” are his top concerns for 2024. He considers himself “quite left-leaning, especially by American standards,” and has some issues with Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. But he’s adamant that he will vote for “the candidate who hasn’t stated that he would be a dictator on the first day of his presidency.”
“Trump has repeatedly talked about ‘finding a solution to Ukraine in 24 hours’, and told us that he would let Russia do ‘whatever the hell they want’ with NATO countries who fail to meet budget requirements,” he said over text. “A Trump presidency will most likely mean an end to major aid to Ukraine, which in turn will lead to a Russian victory. This would only embolden Putin to continue his destructive path westward.”
While 56% of young people have heard about recent campus protests, 83% said that they have not attended any recent demonstrations or other public events about Israel or Palestine. Young people are split 51-49 on whether political leaders are focusing the right amount or too much on campus protests. And while 34% think that politicians and the media are not concerned enough about Israel and Palestine, 49% think that they’re not concerned enough about high prices. Just 14% think politicians and the media are too focused on high prices, compared to 23% who say the same about Israel-Palestine.
To close out the interviews, I asked my friends what they think the mainstream media gets most wrong about young people. Almost all of them pointed to the narrative that young people are a monolithic, liberal bloc.
Shishir told me that he does not watch mainstream media “because they have a history of dishonesty, and because of that I don’t have much to base an opinion on how they portray the young voters.”
“I believe that mainstream media tends to exaggerate just how ‘radical’ young voters are,” Luca texted me.
“What the mainstream media gets wrong about young voters is that we are all overly progressive/radical,” my Ranger friend texted. “Most young people I know are moderate on most things.”
“Most young voters are regular people who want common sense policies and no lies and corruption. I think young people are often portrayed as emotional or angry about things,” Gabe told me. “I think the kids have a right to be angry because the system is not working for them like it did for earlier generations, while simultaneously their problems are ignored by the much older demographic in politics. They are no less informed than the average voter and their voices need to be heard more.”
“The idea that we all walk in unison. Although anecdotal, I have personally seen the most extreme viewpoints on political issues from individuals my age,” Melaku said. “Just like the rest of the voting population, we hold varying ideologies, so it may be best not to approach us all as the typical liberal college student.”
“I think the mainstream media thinks young people care more about social issues than they actually do. That being said, I think that goes for everybody,” Felix told me. “Young people also think other young people care more about social issues than they actually do. This is a collective illusion.”
I asked my Ranger friend what he remembered about the Trump presidency, and how he felt politics had changed since then. He texted me: “I remember during the Trump presidency that the media was a circus every other day. My impression of politics from before Trump was that Americans were generally more civil towards political issues/opposition. The change I noticed is the average American being less decent towards anyone they disagree with right or left.”
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young people liberal beliefs
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